27 May 2016
Posted
in Economy
Should the British citizen choose to leave the EU structures, the whole process will take place gradually as per Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Over the next two years parties will have to reach agreements on the conditions for the exit, otherwise the UK would return to the default position, when it comes to trade with the EU, as defined by the rules of the WTO
The possible savings of not having to contribute towards EU structures for 2016 are expected to reach about £9.6bn (about $14.7bn). This amount accounts for approximately 6.3% of the total spending for pension in 2016, 7% of the healthcare bill, 10.7% of education, 21.3% and 8.7% for defence and welfare respectively.
Assuming the Brexit happens, the worst case scenario for the UK economy would involve applying tariffs for traded goods and services and putting trade restrictions and concessions in place. However, this scenario is unlikely as both the EU as well as the UK would be prompt to sign appropriate agreements to mitigate any possible negative effects in order to maintain the mutual trade deals, such as lower/special tariff systems for trade of goods and services or adopting tools that will allow for alleviating the negative effects on the trade, like simplified declaration procedures.
The lack of the control over the free movement of people seems to be one of the major arguments in favor of Brexit. Brexit will help the British to reject this rule and free themselves from EU bureaucracy, having to meet all kinds of standards and requirements. In case of Brexit, the UK is likely to raise barriers for low –skilled workers and ease them for higher skilled ones.